the j. botter weblog

SEAN SHERK D. TYSON GRIFFIN: This one went to a decision as I expected, but it was also the fight of the night. Just an all-out brawl from the two guys I’d least expected it from, with tons of great striking. Sherk’s standup game has improved 5,000% since he was picked apart by BJ Penn earlier this year.

JUNIOR DE LOS SANTOS D. FABRICIO WERDUM: I predicted Santos would win this one, but I didn’t think it would happen like this. Santos knocked Werdum out in the first round with a fantastic uppercut. 

GRAY MAYNARD D. RICH CLEMENTI: This fight was boring.

THIAGO ALVES D. JOSH KOSCHECK: Thiago Alves picked Koscheck apart for all three rounds. Alves is scary good, and he’s definitely the top contender to St. Pierre’s belt. He might even give St. Pierre a run for his money. 

ANDERSON SILVA D. PATRICK COTE: This was the worst ending to a main event fight that I’ve ever seen. Cote did a little jump in the third round and immediately went down with a knee injury. The fight was stopped and Silva won by TKO.

I’m exhausted, but I did want to point something out before I crash. I’ve been reading stories from lots of folks about how great Cote was for taking Silva to the third round, where nobody else had taken him in the UFC. Cote even mentioned it after the fight. That’s asinine. Patrick Cote did not take Anderson Silva to the third round — Anderson Silva toyed with Patrick Cote for two rounds. He ALLOWED Cote to get to the third round. Cote never touched Silva, and the few times that Silva decided to take action, he drilled Cote with knees and punches. 

That being said, I am not sure why Silva decided to wait around. His legend has been built on finishing people, and he’s been built up as a killer. Tonight, that killer never got a chance to come out. Would Silva have finished him? Probably. But the fact that Cote made it to the third round doesn’t mean he deserves a rematch.

I’m short on time this week, so there’s no full preview for this card, but I wanted to give my picks since it’s become a tradition for me to fail miserably while picking winners on these shows.

ANDERSON SILVA VS. PATRICK COTE: Honestly, this is going to be a slaughter. I’ll usually give even big underdogs a slim chance, but I cannot foresee a scenario in which Patrick Cote can possibly beat Anderson Silva. In fact, I’ll be surprised if the fight even goes longer than 60 seconds. Cote hits very hard and has a good chin, but he’s never faced anyone as fast, accurate and vicious as Silva. This one will end fast and probably ugly for Cote. 

PREDICTION: Anderson Silva

THIAGO ALVES VS. JOSH KOSCHECK: Koscheck saved the UFC’s bacon in this fight, but it’s a good matchup for him. There’s no guarantee the gigantic Alves will even make weight for this one, and I think Koscheck is too good on the ground for Alves to take him out.

PREDICTION: Josh Koscheck

FABRICIO WERDUM VS. JUNIOR DE LOS SANTOS: NOTE: I am changing my pick in this fight after seeing Werdum at the weigh-in on Friday. He’s fat and out of shape. De Los Santos for the upset here.
SEAN SHERK VS. TYSON GRIFFIN: Sherk 
RICH CLEMENTI VS. GRAY MAYNARD: Clementi

The October edition of my UFC Rankings will be published on Monday or Tuesday.

I’m only doing the top three fights for this show. With the Affliction show coming up on the same night, I need more time to devote to that card, which is historically important and also one of the best MMA cards in history, especially when it comes to heavyweights.

ANDERSON SILVA VS. JAMES IRVIN

After cleaning out the middleweight division with ease, the best pound for pound fighter in the world now has his sights set on the 205 pound division. Dana White typically doesn’t let a guy fight in two divisions at one time, but he’s made an exception for both Silva and lightweight champion B.J. Penn due to the lack of credible opponents in their home divisions.

James Irvin has incredible knockout power, but he’s not on the level of guys like Rich Franklin, Nate Marquardt or Dan Henderson, and Silva beat all three of those guys quite easily. Irvin claims that he’s going to beat Silva in the clinch, but that was also Henderson’s gameplan and we all saw how well that worked out.

This fight won’t last long. Silva by knockout in the first round, hopefully setting up a light heavyweight showdown with Lyoto Machida later in the year.

Prediction: Silva by TKO, Round 1

BRANDON VERA VS. REESE ANDY

Vera is on a two fight losing streak, but he’s dropping down a weight class and making his debut at light heavyweight in this fight. Reese is a former IFL fighter and the strongest aspect of his game is his wrestling, but Vera is bigger, stronger and a much better striker.

Prediction: Brandon Vera by TKO, Round 2

FRANKIE EDGAR VS. HERMES FRANCA

Franca makes his return to the UFC after serving a one year suspension for testing positive for anabolic steroids prior to his title fight with Sean Sherk last summer. Both Franca and Edgar are two of the better grapplers in the lightweight division, with Edgar specializing in wrestling and Franca in jui-jitsu.

Franca has been off for a year, but I don’t think we’ll see much cage rust. He’s a better fighter than Edgar, and I think we’ll see him win by submission.

Prediction: Franca by submission, Round 2

Check this out — Spike TV has an awards show called The Guy’s Choice Awards, and the voting is now open. I’m mentioning this because Anderson Silva is nominated for the World’s Most Dangerous Man award. Go vote and then watch the show on June 22nd.

My god, what a card.

Tonight’s UFC 82 event was stacked, but it ended up being far better than I thought it would be.

JON FITCH D. CHRIS WILSON (DECISION): Wilson looked good and gave Fitch far more trouble than I thought he would, but Fitch did control most of the fight. Wilson slapped on a triangle choke with roughly 18 seconds left and tried to pull it tight, but Fitch survived to score the unanimous decision. Fitch secured himself a title shot at the winner of Georges St. Pierre/Matt Serra next month with this win, as well he should have: he’s won 15 fights in a row. A very good start to the show.

After the fight, we go to Joe Rogan in the crowd, who is interviewing new UFC Hall Of Famer Mark Coleman. Coleman drops a bombshell: he’ll be fighting Brock Lesnar in Minnesota in August. That’s a HUGE story. I don’t think Coleman stands a chance in hell against Lesnar; he’s 3-4 in his last 7 fights and my last memory of him was watching him get mauled by Fedor Emelianenko. Brock Lesnar isn’t Fedor, but he’s also way better than Mark Coleman, and my early prediction is a very, very quick fight with a TKO by Lesnar.

YUSHIN OKAMI D. EVAN TANNER (KO, 3:00 OF ROUND TWO): This was a far different Okami than I’m used to seeing. He was striking with pinpoint precision and a lot of power, and ended up knocking out the returning UFC vet with an absolutely perfect muay thai knee to the jaw. Okami followed up with a punch to the unconscious Tanner, but seemed to pull up short when he realized that Tanner was out cold. A very strong showing by Okami, and unless they are able to sign Matt Lindlan, he’ll probably get the next shot at Anderson Silva in a depleted middleweight division.

CHRIS LEBEN D. ALLESIO SAKARA (TKO, 3:16 OF ROUND ONE): These two men came out swinging wildly. Leben spent most of the fight eating punches with his face, but dropped the Italian with a big left hook. Leben followed up with several big shots, Sakara turtled up, and Leben landed several more unanswered shots before Herb Dean stepped in to stop the fight. This is why Chris Leben will always have a job: he wins some, he loses some, but he’ll always put on a great show. This was an awesome fight.

HEATH HERRING D. CHEICK KONGO (SPLIT DECISION): Herring was in the shape of his life for this fight. I’ve read several reports of people being bored by this bout, but I was highly entertained and would even come pretty close to saying it was the fight of the night. It was certainly far better than most people figured out would be. Kongo controlled the first round, showcasing a ground game that has improved by leaps and bounds since he first entered the UFC. I gave the second round to Herring, mostly because he was able to pull a lot of ground reversals on Kongo and hit the big Frenchman with about 25 unanswered knees to the ribs while in side control. The third round was more of the same, with Herring reversing everything Kongo threw at him on the ground and landing more knees to the body and elbows to the head. The judges ruled this a split decision, but I thought it was easily Herring’s fight because he won the second and third rounds. Kongo had more takedowns but couldn’t do anything with them and Herring pulled out some very nice reversals, so the takedowns really shouldn’t count for much. After the fight, Herring apologized to the crowd, saying that he thought Kongo was going to stand and bang with him and that he didn’t train at ALL on the ground for this fight. He sure looked like he did.

ANDERSON SILVA D. DAN HENDERSON (SUBMISSION, 4:52 OF THE 2ND ROUND): There was a very long feeling out process in the first round, but Henderson eventually took Silva down and hit him with a bunch of hammerfists to the side of the head. A lot of those hammerfists came very close to the back of the head, and I was surprised (especially given how quick Steve Mazzagati stood up Lesnar and Mir at the last PPV) that they didn’t stand them up. The second round was a pure clinic from Anderson Silva, who struck with precision and then dropped Henderson with a crunching muay thai knee to the face. Silva tried to finish Henderson, but Dan recovered enough to tie Silva up. Silva took Henderson’s back far too easily, got his hooks in, flattened Henderson out, and sunk in a perfect rear naked choke. Henderson tried to hold on for the 8 seconds left in the round, but realized he wasn’t going to make it and tapped out.

There shouldn’t be anyone left in the entire world who doesn’t believe that Anderson Silva is the best pound for pound fighter in the world. After being controlled for the entire first round and in a small amount of danger, he endured and came back in the second round in vintage Silva fashion, schooling Henderson in striking, wrestling and submissions. This dude is scary as hell, and there is NO ONE currently in the middleweight division who will beat him. Unless the UFC can sign Matt Lindland, there are literally no challengers left for Silva in the division, and his best bet for challengers is to move up to light heavyweight. Yushin Okami will likely get the next title shot, and that’s not even going to be a real fight. Moving to light heavyweight would be easy for him, because he walks around at about 210 pounds and probably fought tonight at 200 pounds. He’ll have a ton of opponents ready-made for huge fights, too. Chuck Liddell is the first that comes to mind, but there’s also Shogun Rua, Wanderlei Silva, and Rampage Jackson, all of whom would draw gigantic buyrates with Silva in a main event.

They replayed the Koschek/Hazelett fight from the pre-show card. I usually don’t talk about the swing bouts, but the finish to this fight was SO PERFECT that I have to mention it. These dudes beat the living crap out of each other for a round and a half, and then Koschek hit what appeared to be a flying kick to the head that knocked Hazelett to the ground. Kos then scrambled very, very fast to Hazelett’s position and drilled him with a few shots to the face before the ref stopped it. It was an AWESOME fight and an amazing finish.

This was one of the best overall UFC events I can remember seeing. I usually don’t do this, but this card was so strong that I recommend buying the DVD when they release it.

I’ll have the March edition of my UFC Rankings up on Monday or Tuesday. I suspect there will be quite a bit of movement, so stay tuned for that.

This is one of the deepest fight cards in recent memory, with a superb main event and several fights featuring guys making bids for later title shots. It’s so deep, in fact, that there are several big name fighters being relegated to prelim status: Andrei Arlovski, Diego Sanchez and Josh Koschek will all fight on the untelevised portion of the show. Arlovski has been buried because he’s on the final match of his UFC contract and refuses to sign an extension, so he’ll probably be stuck there. Sanchez and Koschek, however, will probably have their fights shown on the televised portion of the card should time allow.

On with the preview.

UFC MIDDLEWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP
ANDERSON SILVA (CHAMPION) VS. DAN HENDERSON

Many championship bouts that UFC puts on are designed to draw as many PPV buys from the mainstream audience as possible. Fighters are often matched up without thought being given to actual statistical rankings, mostly because the UFC doesn’t really utilize a statistical ranking system. Typically, you’re going to see championship bouts that will draw the most PPV buys, which is why Tito Ortiz got a shot at Chuck Liddell in late 2006 when there were several others who were far more deserving.

This fight, however, is not one of those fights.

Yes, Dan Henderson was beaten by Light Heavyweight champion Quinton Jackson in the fall of 2007. Henderson still holds the PRIDE Middleweight championship, however, and is considered by many to be one of the best middleweights in the entire world. This is a fight for the hardcore fans, a matchup of two guys many consider to be ranked in the mythical top ten world pound for pound rankings.

Anderson Silva is currently believed to be the top fighter in the world in any weight class. His striking skills, as displayed by his FightMetrics statistics, are without equal. He lands nearly 70% of his blows, while the average fighter’s accuracy stands around 35%. By any measure, he’s a dangerous man, with top-shelf skills standing, in the clinch, on the ground and in the guard. In fact, he may have the most dangerous guard in the entire sport. His clinch is also deadly, as Rich Franklin knows all too well.

Dan Henderson, as mentioned, is the current PRIDE Middleweight champion. He’s also the man who most experts believe has the best chance of anyone in the UFC Middleweight division of unseating Anderson Silva. He’s freakishly strong, even at 185 pounds, and he’s the best wrestler in the UFC. He’s a two time Olympic greco-roman wrestler that also has knockout power in both hands.

Silva’s most lethal move, his Muay Thai clinch, usually proves deadly for opponents (such as Franklin), but Henderson has the strength and wrestling ability to power through it. Silva typically outclasses his opponent in every category, from standing and striking to wrestling and submissions, but Henderson has the edge on the ground in this fight.

In the end, I believe that Henderson’s power and wrestling ability give him an edge in this fight. Typically, I would never predict against Anderson Silva; he’s proven to be a dominant champion, the most dominant in the world at the moment, but he’s never faced anyone with the kind of power, conditioning, rock-hard chin or wrestling skills that Henderson has. In the end, I believe that’s going to be the deciding factor in this fight.

PREDICTION: Dan Henderson by TKO (ground and pound)

HEATH HERRING VS. CHEICK KONGO

This is a fight of two contrasting styles. Kongo is a gifted striker and celebrated kickboxer, and most of Herring’s wins have come on the ground. It’s also a fight of two contrasting story arcs; if Kongo wins this fight decisively, he will likely punch his ticket to a shot at Antonio Rodrigo Noguiera’s heavyweight title later in the year. If Herring loses, there’s a good chance that his UFC days will very nearly be over.

Herring is big, strong and hits very hard, but he also has decent wrestling ability. The only real chance he has to defeat Kongo would be to take the fight to the ground, which is where the weakest part of Kongo’s game lies. If Kongo is able to sprawl and keep the fight standing, he’ll either knock Herring out cold or outstrike him on the way to a three round decision.

PREDICTION: Cheick Kongo (Decision)

YUSHIN OKAMI VS. EVAN TANNER

Evan Tanner is a former UFC middleweight champion, but he’s been away from the octagon for nearly two years. He’s beaten Phil Baroni (twice), David Terrell and Robbie Lawler, but was also soundly defeated by Rich Franklin and David Loiseau. He made his UFC debut in 1999, which makes him a veteran in a sport which is only now starting to receive critical recognition from mainstream sports journalists.

If Tanner doesn’t show up in championship form, he’ll be in for a rough night. Yushin Okami has a reputation as a very boring fighter, but he’s also a formidable opponent. Okami is a southpaw with a great ground and pound and is a highly disciplined fighter, and he’s strong in wrestling and hits very hard. His only hiccup in the UFC was a decision loss to Rich Franklin.

Tanner likes to use leg kicks to set up a takedown, but he’ll have to be cautious if exercising that game plan against Okami. Okami has the ability to control where the fight goes, often wearing down his opponent after a takedown by completely controlling them. Tanner, however, has won 20 of his fights by submission and owns an excellent triangle choke.

I don’t see either one of these guys being able to finish the other. Tanner can submit guys at will, but he’s dealing with a different type of animal in Okami during this fight. Okami, much to the chagrin of the UFC and its fans, is perfectly content to control a fight on the ground and eke out a decision victory, and that’s what I see happening here.

PREDICTION: Yushin Okami (Decision)

CHRIS LEBEN VS. ALLESIO SAKARA

This one has all the makings of Fight Of The Night. Both of these guys love a vicious knockout, and they’ll both be swinging wildly in an attempt to score a huge punch.

Chris Leben has knockout power and a strong chin, and he’s a vastly improved fighter since the time he competed on the first season of the Ultimate Fighter. He’s a very exciting fighter, and his last victory was over Terry Martin at UFC Fight Night 11 in September of 2007.

Allessio Sakara is also an exciting fighter, and this is his first fight in the middleweight division. He’s split his last two fights; in the first, he was destroyed by Houston Alexander in 61 seconds, and he followed that up by defeating James Lee at UFC 80 in January in 90 seconds via TKO. After the Lee fight, Sakara announced that he’d be moving to the middleweight division. He’s a former professional boxer with a very dangerous standup game.

Leben’s strength is in the clinch, and you can expect him to try and keep the gaps between he and Sakara to a minimum. As we saw in his fight against Houston Alexander, Sakara is not great with defense in the clinch, and I believe that’s going to make a difference in this fight. They’ll come out swinging, and then Leben will close the distance, get him in the clinch and finish him. It won’t go past the first round, either.

PREDICTION: Chris Leben (TKO)

JON FITCH VS. CHRIS WILSON

Jon Fitch is one of the most dominant fighters in the welterweight division at the moment, amassing 14 straight victories overall and seven straight in the UFC. In fact, Fitch hasn’t lost in over five years. No other fighter in the world can claim that kind of dominance right now, and a victory over Wilson will almost assuredly guarantee him a title shot at the winner of the Matt Serra/Georges St. Pierre fight next month. He hasn’t faced scrubs, either: his list of victims includes Diego Sanchez, Josh Burkman and Thiago Alves, to name a few. He was originally slated to face Akihiro Gono during this fight, but Gono pulled out on January 19th with a hand injury and Wilson stepped in to take the fight.

Chris Wilson is a newcomer to the UFC. He’s a Team Quest fighter and a very dangerous striker who trains with great wrestlers every day at the Team Quest headquarters. He also happens to maintain a pretty good blog. Wilson did quite a bit of his training for this fight in Big Bear, which means his conditioning should be maxed out despite the short fight notice.

To me, Jon Fitch is one win away from getting a shot at the welterweight championship, and I think that win is going to come this Saturday. Fitch is an amazing wrestler who should be able to take Wilson down (despite Wilson’s training with great wrestlers) and control the fight on the ground. I think Fitch is going to dominate the fight on the ground and submit Wilson, and I think he’ll do it by the end of the second round.

PREDICTION: Jon Fitch (Submission)

Here are some random bullet-point thoughts about UFC 77 and where they go from here.

• First and foremost, I think Anderson Silva has firmly supplanted Fedor Emelianenko as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. His complete dismantling of Rich Franklin on Saturday night was an unveiling of sorts; we always knew Silva had to be considered one of the best in the world, but his second victory over the former champ cemented it. The fight was slightly more competitive than the first one, mostly because Franklin escaped from the first round, but at no point was Silva in danger. In fact, he looked like he was even having fun, mixing some dance moves in while dodging Franklin’s punches. There’s nobody in the middleweight division who could even have a remote chance of beating Silva, save for perhaps Dan Henderson, and he’s not dropping down from light heavyweight, so I suspect that Silva will be the middleweight champion for as long as he wants to be. Silva’s brutal beating of Franklin has probably ended Ace’s career, as well, because he mentioned retirement after the show. He might as well retire — after all, he’s not going to beat Silva, so what’s the point of sticking around the division?
• Tim Sylvia is the most boring fighter in the world, and that makes him a pretty unpopular guy, but he took care of Brandon Vera from the outset of the fight to the finish. I hate “octagon control” because it’s boring and it’s Tim’s specialty, but even in the few exchanges that happened Sylvia dominated. Vera’s lone good shot was an illegal knee to the temple while Sylvia’s knees were on the ground. While I don’t want to see Tim Sylvia fighting for a title shot, I’ve no doubt that it’s probably going to be him vs. Noguiera for the belt in 2008, unless Couture can iron out his differences with Dana White.
• The announcement of signing of Brock Lesnar took me by surprise, not because I didn’t expect them to sign him, but because there’d be no rumors lately that he’d be announced at the show. Good surprise by UFC, and I’m looking forward to seeing who his first UFC opponent is. I think Lesnar is the future of the heavyweight division and he’s going to be a scary, scary fighter once he’s had a few fights under his belt. Remember, Lesnar’s first fight ended when his opponent tapped out while being PUNCHED — not a submission move, but an actual tap out just because Lesnar was punching him so hard. He has to cut weight to make 265, which nobody else outside of Tim Sylvia has to do. Needless to say, I’d love to see him fight Sylvia because there’s no way Tim will be able to push him up against the cage wall like he does with so many other fighters.
• UFC 78 doesn’t have a ton of stars on the card, but it does have a few up and comers — Michael Bisping takes on Rashad Evans, and Houston Alexander fights in the co-main event of the night. I’m always pumped to see Houston Alexander, and if he wins the fight, you’ve got to think he’s on the short list of guys to fight Rampage. I think Forrest Griffin should get an immediate title shot after defeating Shogun last month, but if Alexander is able to beat Thiago Silva at 78 in dramatic fashion then he should be next in line. I think Houston is for real, and he’s fighting a guy who is undefeated in UFC, so it should make him a contender with a victory.

After Randy Couture’s amazing win last Saturday night over Tim Sylvia, UFC is in a position to have a year that is even stronger than last year’s amazing run. Nobody in MMA journalism thought they could possibly top the run of amazing main events they had last year, but Couture’s win along with Chuck Liddell moving to the heavyweight division after his fight with Rampage Jackson puts them in a position where they’ve got even more big-money matchups than ever.

A short listing of possible fights:

Quick UFC results from tonight:

Patrick Cote d. Scott Smith in a very boring fight. Neither guy did much for a large portion of the fight, and the crowd started to boo them for it. Cote got off one of the lines of the night after the fight, thanking the crowd for booing him and saying that he looks forward to them booing him again soon.

Rampage Jackson b Marvin Eastman. Jackson was an immediate superstar and the fans live were super hot for him. At the sports bar I watched it, you’d never know that Jackson is a virtual unknown to UFC fans, because the place was going crazy for him during his entrance. He fought tentatively for the first round and Eastman did well for himself, but Jackson murdered this man with six straight uncontested uppercuts to finish him off.  I think Jackson will have one more fight, likely in the summer, and then they’ll set up the Liddell title match, which will probably end up doing over a million buys easily.

Roger Huerta d. John Halverson. Short fight at 19 seconds and a strange finish. Huerta looked like he kneed Halverson right in the face, knocking him out, and then finished him with strikes, but the replay showed that the knee actually hit Halverson on the shoulder and that he was playing possum on the ground trying to sucker Huerta into going for a big move. The ref (and no one else) knew of this genius plan and stopped the fight, and Halverson got up with a look on his face like the ultimate sin had just been committed on him.

Mirko Cro Cop d. Eddie Sanchez. Never before in mixed martial arts have I actually seen one fighter HUNT another one, but that is what happened in this fight.  Mirko stalked this poor man for the entire fight and pretty much destroyed him at will. Cro Cop landed several left high kicks and some sick punches, and the fight ended when Mirko landed a hard straight left and then got a full mount and picked Sanchez’s face apart with his fists. Cro Cop also became an immediate superstar tonight, and it’s amazingly obvious that he doesn’t need another fight before going after the heavyweight title. If it’s Cro Cop vs Sylvia, the fans will buy the show to watch Cro Cop destroy someone who is almost universally hated for being boring, and if it’s Couture, well, that’s a dream match that will do huge numbers. I suspect the next Cro Cop fight will be for the belt. Oh, and Cro Cop came out to the PRIDE theme song, which is a hint to the biggest MMA story in history (UFC buying PRIDE).

Anderson Silva d. Travis Lutter. Lutter is a moron for failing to make weight and losing his shot at the belt, because he actually made a good showing for himself in this fight. He took Silva down easily and won the first round, but in the second Silva ended up getting him in a triangle choke and elbowed him on the top of the head until he tapped. Say goodbye, Lutter — you’ll probably never get another title shot again.

Overall, this was a fantastic show. I’d talk about the prelim fights (especially Tyson Griffin vs. Frankie Edgar, which was one of the best 155 pound fights I’ve ever seen and was easily the fight of the night) but I’m too tired.