the j. botter weblog

Like me, my little sister is a baseball fanatic. She used to be an Astros fanatic but now cares more about her fantasy team than any single team. I told her this would happen (she’d never played any kind of fantasy sports), but she didn’t listen. Read the rest of this entry »

I think I’m going to make a habit of posting these “live recaps” of games that I attend at Minute Maid Park. They’re not actually live, per say, but more of a reflection of my time spent at the ballpark for a certain game.

As I noted earlier today, I made the last second decision to go to the game this afternoon. Khalil had tickets and I was jealous, so I decided to go down and at least see if there was anything available. I had tried Ticketmaster and even StubHub, and no tickets were available at either site, which is a rarity.

I thought the game started at 7pm, so I’d planned on leaving work around 4:30 to make the 20 minute trek over to the ballpark and see if there were any tickets available. At about 4:20, I browsed to Astros.com and discovered that the game actually started at 6, so I immediately left work and headed downtown. It took awhile to find parking and I ended up paying $20 for a spot. I figured that by the time I waited around for a free spot to open, the scalpers would have sold all their tickets. I parked in a lot close to the stadium and asked the attendant if I could go to the “white tents” (where ticket sellers are) and see if there were any tickets available. He told me yes, so I promised to come back and pay my parking fee if I was able to get a ticket.

I ended up buying a field box seat for $40, which is exactly $1 more than they sell for regularly. I had fantastic seats. I walked back over to the parking lot, paid my fee, and then went to the stadium.

The club had a whole bunch of opening day festivities going on, including a few paratroopers jumping into the stadium. One man simply must have been going around 30mph when he landed; I feared for his life. Milo Hamilton introduced both teams, and then Jack Ingram sang the National Anthem. 

And with that, it was time to open the home season! Here’s my notes from the game:

• If Wandy Rodriguez pitched as well on the road as he does at home, he’d be one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball and the ace of our staff. Rodriguez pitched 7 1/3 innings, giving up only 3 hits and zero runs while striking out 7. He was utterly dominating, and I still cannot understand why he pitches so well at home and so badly on the road. Maybe the club really does need to take his home furniture on the road with him. He baffled the Cardinals tonight and baffled me with the home/road difference in his pitching.
• Man, this team can hit some bombs. Lance Berkman hit an absolute bomb to center field that was never in doubt, and Carlos Lee followed it up with a shot that very nearly cleared the ballpark wall in left field. J.R. Towles, a guy I think is going to be the best hitting catcher in baseball over the next few years, hit one in the next inning. And of course, Miguel Tejada hit a 2 run walkoff in the bottom of the ninth to give us the win.
• Michael Bourn is fast. Like, really fast. I think the only way an opposing catcher is going to throw him out is if he overslides the bag, which he has a tendency to do. He stole two more bases tonight, and on the first one it looked like he was going to slide into left field. He makes it look easy and brings a brand new dynamic to the Astros that they haven’t had in 15 years or more, since before Craig Biggio’s legs got old and creaky.
• I hope tonight wasn’t an indicator of what we can expect from Jose Valverde for the rest of the season. I don’t think it is, but it still worries me that he gave up three runs to a team that had barely managed to get on base the rest of the night.
• Tejada is doing a fantastic job as a defensive shortstop. I expected a gigantic drop from Adam Everett to Tejada as far as the glove is concerned, but he has made some fantastic and difficult plays in the first 8 games. His bat gives him a huge edge over Everett overall. My only complaint with the trade when it happened was losing Luke Scott, and he’s got a .538 batting average for the Orioles this season. No way he can maintain that pace, but I think he’s going to be a great player and we may end up regretting his loss much more than we expected.
• And lastly, I just wanted to point out that Albert Pujols is a gigantic, gigantic beast of a human. He looks like a pro wrestler. Seriously. He hit a pop fly tonight that would have been just outside the infield for everyone else, but because he’s Albert Pujols and he’s ungodly strong, it went all the way to the wall, where Carlos Lee grabbed it. A 314 foot pop fly that missed being a homer by about 2 feet? That dude is packing some punch, but we already knew that.

The offense is the one facet of the Astros that has the chance of being greatly improved.

I say “chance” because it really all depends on which version of Miguel Tejada shows up to play at Minute Maid this year. Will it be some variation of the MVP Tejada, or will it be the Miguel who’s been declining the past several years while rotting away in Baltimore? Baseball Prospectus has him going for 16 homers and 75 RBI’s at a .296 clip, so he’s a gigantic improvement over Adam Everett. But then again, I could probably step up to the plate right now and be an improvement over Adam Everett’s black hole of a bat, despite not swinging a stick in roughly ten years or so.

If nothing else, Tejada will provide some extra fire to the heart of a lineup that was already pretty good. Pitchers are going to get tired while trying to navigate the Pence-Berkman-Lee-Tejada portion of the lineup, and if all four of those guys are on the top of their game it gives the Astros a four-man heart that should be able to score as many runs as any other team in the league.

Michael Bourn will be your leadoff hitter, and from the limited amounts I’ve seen him play in spring training it seems like Ed Wade made the right decision in trading Brad Lidge for Bourn. Granted, trading Lidge was a no-brainer, but the entire goal of making deals in major league baseball is to get as much as you can while giving up as little as you can. From early appearances, it seems like the Astros may have done just that. Bourn is lightning fast and gives the Astros the kind of speed at the top of their lineup that Houston fans haven’t seen in a long time.

Hunter Pence was originally slated to bat 6th in the order, but the unfortunate (and nasty) injury to free agent newcomer Kaz Matsui’s hindquarters prompted Cecil Cooper to bat Pence 2nd in the lineup. This is the kind of move that just makes sense, as Pence may just be the 2nd best hitter on the entire squad, and it seems pointless to have him wasting away in the 6 hole just because Matsui may have an edge in the speed department (which I don’t think he does, anyway). BP has Pence projected at 23 homers, 80 RBI’s, 13 stolen bases and a .286 batting average; I’m going to go on record in saying that I think Pence will somewhere between 26-30 homers, drive in 110 runs, and hit around .330. He’s the future of this franchise.

I think Ty Wigginton is the dark horse of this Astros lineup. No one seems to talk about the guy when talking about potential Astros stars, but I think he’s got what it takes to be a real producer. A top of the line PECOTA (the Baseball Prospectus projection system) has him hitting 26 homers, driving in 88 runs and hitting .303, and I think that’s entirely attainable. He’ll be hitting behind Matsui and Kaz is a fast dude, plus he’ll potentially have Lee and Tejada batting in the same inning, which should lead to plenty of RBI chances. The guy is 6 feet tall and 225 pounds, and he’s got some pop in his bat. PECOTA also lists him at a 15% breakout rate, which is low, but at a 37% Improve rate, which is promising. It remains to be seen if he’ll actually live up to the potential I see in him, but to me he’s a big key in whether or not the Astros will remain in the doghouse or surprise everyone and become a contender this year.

I targeted JR Towles in my fantasy draft this year for one reason: he’s a good, undervalued hitter. Towles is taking over the every day catcher spot from one of the most beloved Astros of the 00’s in Brad Ausmus, and he showed a ton of potential in his brief call-up last year from the minors. In 40 AB’s last year, Towles scored 15 hits and 12 RBI’s with a batting average of .375. Granted, it was just 40 at bats, but even in that small sample size, you could see the potential he has to be a true hitting catcher, which is a rarity in baseball. In fact, I had him rated as the third best catcher in baseball this year behind Russell Martin and Victor Martinez. There’s no way of knowing he’ll live up to the lofty expectations that are on him, but I do believe he’ll be a contender for rookie of the year come October. Brad Ausmus will likely see about 20% playing time behind the plate, and I don’t even really feel like evaluating Ausmus as a hitter, because he’s terrible.

Kat Matsui…I don’t really know what to say about the guy. He’s a good hitter, when he’s on. But he’s so wildly inconsistent that I still find it hard to believe that the Astros gave him 4 million a year as a free agent. PECOTA has him at 4 homers, 27 RBI’s, 15 stolen bases and a .259 batting average. His VORP is just 5.6, which would put him around the lower end of all major league starters at 2nd. If Matsui ends up close those numbers, we’d have to consider him a bust, especially since he’ll be hitting directly behind Lee and Tejada. Hopefully he’ll get his rear issues sorted out and come back as a productive player, but I’m not optimistic. I would have spent the money on a reliever and kept Mark Loretta at 2nd, hitting 6th or 7th. I know Ed Wade values speed, but speed doesn’t mean anything if you can’t get on base.

As far as the bench goes, Jose Cruz Jr. had an extremely productive spring training and probably did enough to make the team. He hit almost .500, which was far and away the best average on the team, and also led the team in RBI’s. He’ll likely be the 4th or 5th outfielder, depending on how well he does in the final two exhibition games against the Tigers at Minute Maid (which I’ll be attending, by the way). Mark Loretta is going to be a solid, if unspectacular backup for Matsui at 2nd and Tejada at short, and he’ll probably continue to be a solid bench player. Darrin Erstad is an intriguing pickup to me, because he’s been a superstar player in the past, so to have him backing up your outfielders is a very comforting thing. I don’t even feel the need to talk about Geoff Blum right now, because I have a strong feeling he’s going to be a non-factor this year.

All told, the Astros are going to have a much-improved offense this year. They’ve proved during spring training that they can score plenty of runs, and it’s going to be rather exciting watching them bat this year. The bad part? Our pitching is as bad as our offense is good, and I’ll preview that this weekend.

“I’m thrilled to be here,” Lidge said in his face-to-face introduction to the Philadelphia media. “I get more excited every day thinking about the prospects of what we can do here. I feel lucky to go from an up-and-down team to a winning team. Hopefully, I can have one of my best seasons next year.”

This is what Brad Lidge says now. What he neglects to mention, of course, is that we were down quite a bit because of his HORRIBLE HORRIBLE PITCHING. Don’t worry, B-Rad — soon enough, Philadelphia will be an up-and-down team as well — just as soon as you start blowing saves like you did here in Houston. Purpura should have traded you while everyone else in the world thought you still had what it takes to be a closer in the bigs.

I’m including a picture of Brad in his new uniform. I can’t wait for Carlos Lee to become the new Pujols and have that little girl cowering in fear everytime he waddles to the plate. Mark my words — Carlos will walk up to the plate, eat a hot dog, and then hit one out of the park.

The Astros are looking to trade for Orioles shortshop Miguel Tejada, and Michael Bourn, Adam Everett and another prospect could be on their way out of Houston in the deal.

I like the deal. I’m not enthralled with it, but I think that having Tejada at short and no Bourn in center is better than having Adam Everett at short and Bourn in center. Everett is just a black hole in the batting lineup, and regardless of how amazing he is at shortstop, his deficiencies at the plate far overshadow his defensive skills. Adam’s a nice guy and all, but adding someone like Miguel Tejada is a no-brainer, especially at the cost; last time the Astros pursued Tejada, they were going to trade Roy Oswalt for him, so losing Everett and Bourn is no big deal.

I do wish they could find a way to keep Bourn and still get Tejada, but I doubt we have anything on our roster that would interest the Orioles enough to make that trade. It’s probably Bourn or nothing.

Via With Leather: A complete listing of baseball player entrance music from Wikipedia.

Notable: The only two Astros on the list are Carlos Lee and Brad Lidge. Lee uses “This Is Why I’m Hot”, while Lidge used to have “The Game” by Drowning Pool, but hasn’t used it since being demoted from the closer role the first time. I’d update the Wikipedia entry, but the few times I’ve tried to do that in the past, I’ve had people jump all over me for daring to make an edit, so I’ll just let it be.

Hey, look: after I made the post about Morgan Ensberg the other day, he goes and hits two homers in his Padres debut. Meanwhile, the Astros needed an extra-innings RBI from pitcher Jason Jennings to beat the Braves last night after Brad Lidge blew yet another save.

Fantastic, I say.

The hosts on 790 (the ANIMAL) sports radio here in Houston this morning came up with a great idea: given upcoming free agents, who would be in your starting five for the Astros in 2008?

Here’s mine:

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Carlos Zambrano
3. Brandon Backe
4. Troy Patton
5. Chris Sampson

Yes, I know that Zambrano is seeking a 7 or 8 year deal, and it’s very unlikely that Drayton is going to sign a pitcher with injury issues for that much of a long-term deal, especially when the money will be around 18 million per year. That’s why this is a “dream” lineup. And yeah, I know that Woody Williams is getting paid 6 million a year, but I have to think that he’d accept a bullpen role (if he doesn’t retire first) because of his horrid pitching this year. Throw Wandy in the bullpen and only let him pitch at home, and you have a pretty good lineup.

It’s time for Tim Purpura to make the tough choice and fire Phil Garner. If he doesn’t want to do that, then Drayton McLane needs to fire Purpura and bring in someone who’s willing to do more than just sit with the status quo.

I’m a Phil Garner fan. I grew up watching him play, and he’s done a pretty good job for the Astros since he became skipper. But this year, it is becoming ever more apparent with each passing game than Garner truly has no idea what he’s doing.

Saturday’s loss to Arizona, the Astros’ 8th loss in a row, was proof positive that Garner needs to be relieved of his duties. He pinch-hit for Chris Sampson in the 6th with nobody on base and two outs, which was completely ludicrous given that Sampson had pitched a decent game thus far. He also took Hunter Pence out of the game in the eighth, moving Lance Berkman to center and putting Orlando Palmerio in right field. I’m not sure what made Garner take the best hitter on the team out of the game when they were only one run down, but it’s inexcusable and idiotic.

My sister said they ought to just make Jeff Bagwell the manager for the rest of the year, and that’s not a bad idea. Bring Bags in, see how he does, and maybe bring up Brooks Conrad and a few of the younger guys and get them some playing time. I’m 99% sure that Brooks Conrad would do as well or better than Adam Everett has at the plate, and while I know that Everett is the best defensive shortstop in the entire world, I still think it’s time to freshen things up.

They need to start with getting rid of Garner. It’s past due.

Well, the 2007 Houston Astros season began much the way that the last two have ended: with Brad Lidge giving up a homer in the ninth inning and blowing a save.

Lidge shouldn’t be the closer anymore. I’m surrounded by family and friends who want to keep giving him chances, and I realize this is just opening day and it’s only one blown save, but it’s the first game of the season and he’s already blown a save in a game that the Astros otherwise played extremely well in. Roy Oswalt was an ace in every sense of the word after the first inning of play tonight, and he deserved to get the win. Brad Lidge just can’t shake the ghost of Albert Pujols that has been hanging off his back for the past two years, and at this point I’m not certain he ever will.

I’d much rather they put the guy in a middle relief position and let him work his way back into the closer spot than to keep him out there and keep letting him blow games. I understand it’s the first game of a very long season, but it seems to me that every single game is going to count in a big way for this Astros team, and they can’t afford to let him rebuild his confidence on the job.

I’m so glad baseball is back.